KUALA LUMPUR, Jan. 23 (Xinhua) -- Analysts have foreseen lower new car sales in Malaysia this year after total industry volume (TIV) hits historical high in 2025.

Kenanga Research said in a recent note that following a record performance, it expects Malaysia's TIV for the first quarter to weaken as automakers and consumers take a breather while preparing for the coming festive period.

"We project a TIV of 725,000 units in 2026 as a reflection of the trend in 2015 when TIV reached a peak, then fell 13 percent post-goods and services tax (GST) holiday," said the research house.

Meanwhile, Hong Leong Investment Bank Research expects 2026 TIV in Malaysia to normalize to 780,000 units, down 5 percent from 2025.

"We expect national original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to sustain their sales momentum into 2026, while non-national marques will likely remain under pressure amid heightened competition from new market entrants which offer aggressive pricing, improved designs, and enhanced product offerings," said the research house.

After four consecutive years of growth, RHB Investment Bank also expects TIV to tone down slightly by 2 percent to 805,000 units, coming from a high base and softening of car replacement cycles, though macroeconomic conditions are still supportive of car purchases.

"We maintain our cautious outlook on the sector as we think the intensifying competition in the non-national segment will continue to persist alongside the lack of near-term re-rating catalysts to boost TIV to record highs," said the research house.

Key risks in the sector include softer-than-expected orders and intense price competition, it added.

Malaysia's TIV in 2025 hit a new high of 820,752 units on the back of a strong month in December, driven by favorable financing, strong domestic demand and robust economic growth.

The Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA) has projected TIV to decline to 790,000 units this year, down 4 percent year-on-year. ■